Trek Permit Quota Calculator
Bhutan's most popular treks are quota-controlled. Snowman is a lottery; Jomolhari caps at roughly 14 trekkers per week during peak. Operators compete for those slots. Booking lead time matters more than fitness. This tool shows the live demand model — how busy each trek is in your chosen month.
Demand by month
What this solves
Operators often don't tell you that your "booked trek" is on a quota. If you book Druk Path for October with 2 weeks lead time, you'll be told "all operators are sold out." This tool uses demand models and seasonal patterns to give you a realistic probability of securing a slot.
How to read the result
Demand is shown as a percentage of typical capacity. Above 80% = book soon. 100%+ = lottery or waitlist likely. Snowman is always lottery; Jomolhari in October fills within 6 weeks of operator announcements.
Limitations
- This tool uses indicative demand patterns. Real quota availability is set by DoT and changes yearly.
- Operator allocation is not public. Snowman lottery results are typically announced in July for that autumn's slots.
- Your actual probability depends on which operators you work with — some buy bigger shares.
FAQ
How does the Snowman lottery work?
Snowman slots are allocated by DoT to licensed operators based on a mix of prior track record and current season demand. Operators select their teams; trekkers apply through their chosen operator. Apply by June for September–October dates.
Is March or October more competitive for Jomolhari?
October is significantly more competitive. Rhododendron season (March–April) has lower demand but colder nights. Choose March if you want guaranteed slots.
Sources
- Department of Tourism — Snowman and Lunana permit lottery procedure
- TOAB — operator quota allocations, published seasonally